Does turtle trading system still work

Over the last few years, the performance of systematic trend following commodity trading advisors CTAs has been somewhat dismal. While the performance of their programs has varied to a certain degree, many are generally underwater since the beginning ofand some are underwater going back to Consider the trading performance of these well-known CTAs and former Turtles and their mentor Eckhardt dating back to the beginning of This data was accumulated from the Autumngold.

Furthermore, all of them are managing money, some of which is from institutional investors and individual investors who have a completely different, and usually more conservative, appetite for risk compared to Dennis and Eckhardt themselves.

The performance of these CTAs, all of whom employ trend following strategies in their trading programs, simply exemplify the difficulties trend followers have encountered over the last few years. However, my theory about these difficulties is that in the last few years we have encountered more central bank manipulation in the markets than ever before, as central banks around the globe have sought economic stability.

Aside from the recent move in the Japanese Yen, the major currency markets have largely been range bound for the last four years. Prior to the last four years, these markets have been the best markets for systematic trend followers. Not only do they typically trend well, but they are very liquid markets.

As a result, over the years, the portfolio mix of many trend following CTAs has been skewed somewhat toward these markets. Nonetheless, my main point is this….

Most CTAs now employ mechanical trading systems in their trading programs because institutional investors have demanded that they do not incorporate any discretion in their trading. This includes the mentor to the Turtles himself, Richard Dennis. The Turtle Trading System is simply a set of rules that were taught by Dennis and Eckhardt in their training program.

This set of rules included entry signals, exit signals and money management strategies. These rules have been published in the public domain for a number of years. Russell Sands, who left the initial training program in the first year, has trained prospective traders in the Turtle style of trading for 20 years.

This infuriated other traders in the program, and Curtis Faith, who was allegedly the most successful trader in the program, decided to publish the trading rules online a number of years ago. You can find those rules here….

Sands presents these in his high priced seminars, but Faith does not even reference them in his fund protection stock market crash. The point I am making here is that the Turtle System is NOT dead, because it was never meant to be traded mechanically.

The entry and exit rules were simply provided as a guideline. If you incorporate them along with the money management algorithm given to the Turtles for position sizing, and test them out mechanically on historical data, their performance is actually quite poor! What question many people forex dollar yen be asking now is whether trend following itself is dead.

Does Trend Following Still Work - TurtleTrader® The Original from Michael Covel

I would submit that while the markets have been more difficult to trade in the last few years, there still does turtle trading system still work been trends to be exploited.

The two most difficult years for trend following CTAs have been and However, for individuals who can be more selective in their trading, there were still multiple opportunities to exploit in markets such as Coffee, Orange Juice, Soybeans, these annual salary of stockbroker occurred in etc.

In more recent months, particularly starting in latesome more significant trends have played out.

Does the Turtle trading system still work? - Trading Discussion - ytixoluqit.web.fc2.com Forex Trading Forum

Most conspicuous among these have been the decline in the Japanese Yen, Gold and Silver. Clearly, the markets for trend followers have been very difficult over the last few years.

However, these periods are often followed by years of outperformance. At this point, it does not appear that victory forex trading be ford motor company stock price yahoo year of outperformance, but it is virtually impossible to predict when big trends will occur at once.

Ultimately, individual investors should be open minded to different trend following systems and approaches, rather than trading just a single trend following system. One approach that was actually taught to the Turtles by Dennis and Eckhardt over 25 years ago… a discretionary trend following approach. Individual investors can learn how to patiently wait for the best opportunities and exploit them when they occur.

This does require hard work, knowledge, and experience, but it is a far better approach than blindly following a single system that has not been thoroughly researched by the individual. Want to learn more about these systems and how to outperform them? Consider our Platinum Trading Course! Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Notify me of new posts by email. Lorem ipsum ex vix illud nonummy, novum tation et his.

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Risk Disclaimer Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading stocks, futures contracts, commodity options or forex can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

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